The WALT Lowdown | Under the Microscope with Chiedozie Ogbene
In the WALT Lowdown, we take a deep analytical dive into the new signings at Kenilworth Road.
Further from The WALT Lowdown thread this morning on Twitter courtesy of The WALT Podcast, it’s refreshing to be able to discuss and demonstrate analytics without character constraints. This paragraph alone would have taken up an entire tweet.
So let’s stick Chiedozie Ogbene, the Republic of Ireland International under the microscope and have a deep dive into whether he will bring us sunshine in the Premier League.
You can of course read the thread put out on Twitter here, but you are here on the WALT substack, so why drink bud light when you can enjoy a real ale.
Overview
Chiedozie Ogbene has had an interesting career, as discussed in his first interview with the club, he moved to Ireland with his family at the age of 8 in 2005. His parents are both nurses, and they had the option between moving to Florida or Cork, they chose the food capital of Ireland, with wonderful pedestrianised streets over the attractions of Walt Disney World, The Kennedy Space Centre and unregulated gun violence.
He first made his debut for Cork City at the tender age of 18, grabbing 2 minutes off the bench. Before impressing in the in the UEFA Youth League for the Cork City U19s - the first Irish club to compete in this competition - with a great win over HJK Helsinki, before losing to AS Roma over two legs. These performances propelled him into the first team squad at Cork City, unfortunately they would miss out on the Premier Division title to Dundalk, however, they got the better Dundalk in the FAI Cup Final, lifting the trophy. In total Ogbene played 10 games scoring 3 goals.
His performances for Cork City did not go unnoticed, and he was signed by Limerick, where he maintained his performances, being nominated for the League of Ireland Player of the Month award three times across his season with Limerick, playing 34 games and notching 8 goals. His abilities drew the attention of Brentford, who were in the Championship at the time, and he transferred there for an undisclosed fee. By his own admittance, in his Luton Town interview, the learning curve to the English game was a steep one, with Championship football being significantly more tactical, and his in game improvisation was not as effective as it had been in the League of Ireland Premier League. Having played 43 minutes for Brentford in the 2017/18 season and a further 28 in the 2018/19 season, he sought to learn his trade lower down the Football Pyramid at Exeter in League 2 for the remainder of the 2018/19 season. His performances impressed then-Rotherham boss Paul Warne, and Rotherham signed Ogbene for the 2019/20 season with Rotherham in League 1. That season would end with a promotion to the Championship, before relegation to League 1, before promotion again to the Championship. However last season (22/23), Rotherham finally grabbed that yo-yo, smashed it to bits and flung it out the window. In total Chiedozie Ogbene played 136 games for Rotherham scoring 14 goals. In the wake of his performances for Rotherham he earned a call up to the full Republic of Ireland squad, and with his first cap became a history maker, the first African-born player to represent the National Team, since his debut in 2021, he has accumulated 15 caps, scoring 4 goals.
This WALT Lowdown will take a look at what Chiedozie Ogbene will bring to Luton Town, where he may potentially fit into our tactical system and will reassure the fanbase that once again the recruitment team appear to have knocked it out the park.
Output
To start off, the bottom line with Ogbene is that he flourished in a Rotherham side that was battling relegation all season. They started well enough, before losing Paul Warne to Derby County, replacing him with Matt Taylor (not that one). Ogbene scored 8 goals (the same as Elijah Adebayo), from an xG (expected goals) of 7.22, meaning he scored more goals than would have been expected of him, depending on the goalscoring situations he found himself in. To compare these numbers with Elijah, his 8 goals came from an xG of 16.10, showing that Ogbene was not wasteful with the chances that were falling to him. To compare him to other attackers in the 8 goal bracket, Lyndon Dykes (QPR) scored 8 against an xG of 12.68 and Matt Godden (Coventry) scored 8 against an xG of 10.09.
His assist numbers were also relatively strong, with 4 assists last season against an xA (expected assists) of 4.76. These numbers are caveated by the fact he was playing in a team not fancied in the Championship and predicted to be relegated before a ball had even been kicked. To compare him to Manuel Benson (Burnley) who only achieved 3 assists against an xA of 3.20, Ogbene’s numbers start to look even better.
Occupation
It’s unclear where he will be playing for Luton Town next season. I would sit on the fence assuming that he has been brought in primarily as a right wing back, for which I will show data to support his defensive third work below, however, he is also equally adept at playing a striker role, with a lot of his game time last season coming in a supporting role with Jordan Hugill up top towards the end of the season.
If we compare his heat map with that of Cody Drameh, you will see a proclivity to play off the right wing. Which further strengthens the idea that if we were not able to sign Cody Drameh, Ogbene would be competing with Fred Onyedinma for starts, although it’s been reported by Lyall Thomas (Sky Sports News) that Luton Town are indeed still after a right wing back. So it may be a case of Ogbene being available for the right wing back role, but being first off the bench to replace Elijah Adebayo or Carlton Morris, due to his ability to run the channels, drive with the ball into the box as well as track back and press.
In terms of comparison, he can do a job like Fred did at the end of the 21/22 season, give us an extra option up top, especially with needing to fill 9 spots on the bench this season, availability will be important.
Offence in the final third
A part of our game that has become crucial, especially with two big men up top, is the delivery into the box, this was clear to see during James Bree’s start of the season, with his ability to deliver from open play resulting in him finishing the season as our top chance creator. You can see below his 22/23 crosses and who they were aimed at. Rotherham had an embarrassment of target man riches up top, but failed to find a formation where they would play two up top at the same time. As it stood Ogbene hit 31.03% accurate crosses, which is impressive when compared to James Bree’s 29% and Cody Drameh’s 36%.
Further to these data, he’s not scared to have a shot from distance, something that we certainly haven’t seen enough of during the 22/23 season, and considering we have stepped up to the Premier League, we are going to need to put on our big boy pants and try hit some speculative shots to test some keepers, especially David de Gea…
Another big part of our game is pressing high, with our turnovers in the final third last season being the highest in the Championship. A high turnover means you can catch the opposition unaware, while they have set up in a pattern to play out of the back, nicking the ball of a player or intercepting a pass will cause mayhem, with the entire team dropping back, often not into their predetermined defensive tactical positions or with not enough time to get back at all. Ogbene’s 1.31 final third recoveries per game are more than Harry Cornick’s (1.29), and we all remember Harry would charge around trying to nick the ball. Further to this Ogbene averaged 13.8 offensive duels per game with a 38.89% success rate, which is on par with Nathan Tella (Burnley), who averaged 13.19 offensive duels with a 37.02% success rate.
The best thing about Ogbene in my opinion is that he is not scared to run with the ball, this is also a big part of our game, with wing backs, or even attackers running the channels, stretching the defence, just pulling them all over the place (just ask Kyle McFadzean). Ogbene averaged 2.63 progressive runs, and was hitting 5.5 successful dribbles per 90 minutes, for Championship attackers he was top 30 in both of these metrics. In the second graphic you can see from his penalty area deliveries, he primarily enjoys running with the ball into the box, which will be very important next season, especially if he is coming on and running against tired defensive legs.
Open to defending
What you want from players is the willingness to track back and defend, whether Ogbene is playing as a right wing back or striker, he will be expected to do his bit for the team, as we defend as a unit, there are no passengers. A key metric to look at are his full pitch recoveries, the graphic below will show they are evenly spread across all thirds of the pitch, meaning he’s happy to drop back and do the dirty work. His total numbers are 136 recoveries, 78 counter presses and 36 interceptions. What is great to see is that the majority of his interceptions are in his own third, meaning he has an eye for nicking a pass. This will be key for quick transitions, as quick breaks will be important when it comes to nicking goals. The second graphic shows his actions in counterattacks, where being fast and direct is key to hurting the opposition.
Above, we looked at his actions in the final third, but it’s important to look at his actions when all over the pitch. His progressive passing from deep is excellent (and concentrated upon the right hand side), his progressive runs to keep the play going are also excellent and when compared to other attackers in the Championship he ranks very highly, which great, because you always want a willing runner. Fortunately his numbers with medium/long passes between 20-30m and 30-40m both show great accuracy, 95.2% and 90.9% respectively. These stats do show that he’s not the type of player to hit a long diagonal ball, but with respect that is the job of our wide centre backs. The second graphic shows his dribbles from all over the pitch, and from the graphic you can see a fair few of them are followed by a shot, often from a central area.
Overall
I think this is a great first signing for Luton Town, the recruitment staff have certainly done their homework and can see that there is a lot more to come from Chiedozie Ogbene. He’s young and hungry to prove himself, as shown by his willingness to cut his teeth in League 2 instead of sitting in the Brentford B team, he is aware that he simply hasn’t just made it. Every time he stepped on the pitch for Rotherham he left everything out there. Furthermore as shown by his performances with the Republic of Ireland, he seems to be a fish that grows to fit bigger ponds.
Good luck Chieo! I’m excited to see you play.
All stats provided by Wyscout