The Emergence of ‘Edwards-Ball’

Matt 'Analytico' Aquino takes a look at our football progression over the last 20 games, and the new dimension of "The Luton Way"

We’ve all seen the growth in Luton’s performances in recent months. What started as Town simply being competitive in each game has evolved into something more. It’s been gradual but noticeable. As the games go by, we're steadily adding another dimension to our game. We’re seeing the expansion of Rob Edwards’ footballing philosophy.

During what we might now call our ‘adjustment period’, when we were new to the Premier League, you could sense an insecurity within many of our players. We appeared hesitant heading into challenges and seemed to panic in possession too often. Perhaps it was a touch of Imposter Syndrome; perhaps we were overawed by the bright lights and big names; or maybe we simply had no way of preparing for the step up from the Championship to the Premier League without experiencing it for ourselves.

The intensity and intelligence of the opposition press wasn’t something we were used to. Everything looked rushed and a bit frantic whenever we had the football but that was understandable. Time on the ball is a luxury you’re not afforded in the Premier League. You can go from assessing your passing options one second to being forced into a last resort hoof the very next.

In those opening games, we would often struggle to find the next pass and inevitably end up pumping it long to the front two. We’d surrender possession, invite pressure on ourselves, wrestle the ball back eventually, but then give away straight again; rinse and repeat. It simply wasn’t sustainable for a side with aspirations of survival.

That appears to have been steadily changing. As the squad has continued proving to themselves that they can live - even thrive - at this level, they’ve looked more settled and have grown in confidence. Our build-up play seems smarter and more composed as a result. We look more patient, more willing to recycle the ball if an opening closes, and more willing to take risks in possession to progress the ball up the pitch in a more sophisticated fashion.

But could our eyes be deceiving us? Are the Orange-tinted glasses magnifying isolated moments and leading us to believe in something that isn’t really happening? Or do the statistics confirm that we are indeed seeing the growth of Rob Edwards’ footballing philosophy? Let’s take a look.

Assessing the Data
I have compared our first 10 Premier League games with the last 10. Why? Firstly, it provides a dead-even split of matches and a representative sample of opposition. Secondly, the 1-1 draw with Liverpool (our 11th fixture) was a watershed moment: it was Ross Barkley's second start after returning from injury and the moment he really started to make an impact on this Luton team.

Possession Play: Finding More Control
The data shows we are both attempting and completing more passes per game on average over the last ten games compared to our first ten. The key takeaway is the 12.3% increase in the number of passes completed per game – a jump from 355.2 to 378.1 on average.

That has been achieved by attempting short (5-15 yard) and medium (15-30 yard) passes more often whilst looking for fewer long passes (30+ yards).

These numbers are still very low by Premier League standards. The league average is 218.2 attempted short passes per game, and our increases in short and medium passes are only minor - indicating that this is evolution not revolution - but it’s certainly a step in the right direction.

We’ll almost certainly still finish the season as one of the most direct sides in the division who get the ball from back to front quicker than a large majority of the teams but now appear to be better at deciding when to circulate the ball and when to try speculative passes forward.

This means we’re able to possess more of the ball and not find ourselves under as much relentless pressure. Over the first ten games, we averaged 37.1% possession; that is now up to 40.1% for the last ten.

The improvement in our passing statistics could be affected by teams sitting off us a little more than previously to negate our counter-attacking threat, but it’s certainly driven in large part by the makeup of our now first-choice central midfield two.

The Importance of Ross Barkley and Albert Sambi Lokonga
Upon signing, Barkley was seen by many (myself included) as a bit of a wildcard; an attacking midfielder who would float in and out of games producing the odd moment of magic, but one that might not suit our system.

All of that was wrong - except for the magic, of course. The system is now built around Barkley operating as deep-lying playmaker and he has become without doubt the player our survival hopes hinge on.

Is he the most talented player ever to pull on a Luton town shirt? The fact it’s even become a debate so soon tells you everything you need to know about the former England international’s impact on this team.

“He allows us to play differently, allows us to be a different team. Ross [Barkley] is a really good player and he does help us, gives us more control.” – Rob Edwards

If we boil it down, Barkley has three core functions within the team.

1)     The ‘Out Ball’ - his ability to receive the ball in tight areas under pressure, create space for himself and find the next pass allows us to keep the ball in situations we previously would have squandered it.

2)     The Metronome – in periods of settled possession, he sets the tempo and directs the play as we search for openings. He knows when to change the pace or the angle of attack and acts as a trigger for the rest of the team.

3)     The Quarterback – is there a better sight than watching Barkley receive the ball, pull off a piece of skill to avoid being sacked, and then hit an almighty Hail Mary in behind the opposition defence?

With Barkley dominating the highlight reels every week, it would be easy to overlook the role Albert Sambi Lokonga plays in our midfield, but he too has been a key component in our evolution.

You wouldn’t normally compare midfielders with completely different skillsets for obvious reasons but, in this case, Lokonga has directly replaced both Marvellous Nakamba and Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu in the team. He’s changed the complexion of our midfield, so it’s worth reviewing what he brings to the team in possession above the others.

Injuries to each mean we can’t evaluate these three players over a prolonged and truly representative sample of games unfortunately. Instead, we’re comparing Nakamba and Pelly’s first four games with Albert Sambi Lokonga’s last four games because these are games in which they all started and played the majority of minutes, and will show the contrast from our early season style to the football we have been playing of late.

As you would expect, Lokonga leads on almost every in-possession metric shown. He attempts more passes per game and has the highest overall pass completion rate; he gets involved in the play in the middle and attacking thirds far more, and he is more adept at running with the ball – be it carries or dribbles.

With Nakamba’s injury ruling him out long-term, Rob Edwards probably won’t face any midfield selection conundrums now. However, when he did have the privilege of a fully fit midfield, he was opting for Lokonga and Barkley together – sacrificing defensive protection for dynamism and ball retention.

Being Braver and Bolder
It’s not just the midfield. Almost everyone within this team is growing in belief. We’re showing more courage and confidence on the ball and are taking more calculated risks. We’ve even started playing out from the defence far more frequently with Gabe Osho comfortable passing through the first line of the opposition press and Amari’i Bell carrying the ball out with the kind of willingness he did last season.

Bell, in particular, makes for a great example. In the first four games of the season, he was incredibly risk-averse recording just two attempted dribbles and no progressive carries. Contrast that with the last four games and its an entirely different picture. Bell has been rediscovering his love for raiding runs into the opposition half from last season and appears to have the support of Edwards in doing so. 

That daring attitude can be seen all over the pitch. From the first ten games to the last ten, the average number of attempted dribbles per game has increased from 15.7 to 22.1 - an almost 41% rise. And when it comes to successful dribbles that number jumps from 6.2 per game to 10.9 per game  – a rise of 75.8%. Progressive carries, too, are up by over 20%.

Making Use of The Ball
So what are we actually doing with this additional possession and more progressive approach? Well, this is where the next step in our continued evolution may need to come. As of the last ten games, we’ve actually been less productive in our attacking play. Below, you can see we’ve had a significant increase in the number of touches taken in our defensive third, and a slight improvement in the middle third but a near 10% decrease in final third touches.

I alluded to teams potentially sitting off us more when we have the ball at the back earlier in this article. That may well be the case - driven by the view that we are most dangerous on the counter and easier to contain when we have possession of the ball given our strengths lie in pace and physicality rather than technical ability.

Either way, the stats show we have been slightly less threatening over the last ten games. Our xG is down, shots per game are down, chances created per game are down and even crosses per game are down on average.

Most importantly, though, goals are up. We’ve covered the shortfall in chance creation by being more lethal in front of goal. Those early discussions around lacking clinical edge at the start of the season now feel like a long time ago. Our shot accuracy rate has more than doubled and so has our shots on target to goals ratio. Over the past 10 games, we have outperformed our xG by a whopping 4.7 goals which is impressive but high unlikely to be viable long term.

Finding another way to carve out quality chances from open play, aside from relying on crosses, could become increasingly important if opponents do decide to start allowing us more time on the ball. We witnessed a lack of invention and penetration under those circumstances away at Burnley - particularly in the second half - as they sat deeper and allowed us to keep the ball in front of them.

That’s something we could see more of in the coming months as we face the likes of Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford and Fulham at home. How we overcome those kinds of challenges will in all likelihood determine our fate in the Premier League.

Conclusion

The data categorically confirms what we’ve all seen with our eyes. That this Luton side are becoming more intelligent and composed in possession of the ball; more willing to look for an extra pass before attempting a hopeful ball which risks handing the initiative back to the opposition unnecessarily.

It has been a gradual shift rather than a sudden overhaul of all the traits that won us promotion and made us who we are. It’s an intent to ‘play more football’ which is guided by Rob Edwards and underpinned by our recruitment. The quality gap will inevitably be too great in certain games and will force us to revert to type, but the strides we’ve made in such a short period are remarkable and speak volumes about the direction in which we’re heading under Edwards.